The latest economic forecast for Idaho predicts decent job and income growth for the state through at least 2021, despite the threat of trade wars and increasing odds of a recession.
The Division of Financial Management released the updated projections last week. The estimates are based in part on a national forecast supplied by IHS Markit.
The baseline estimate calls for 3.1 percent growth in Idaho’s nonfarm employment this year, or an increase of about 22,000 jobs. That’s expected to slow to about 2 percent per year over the next three years.
Personal income is projected to increase 4.5 percent this year, followed by 5.2 percent to 5.3 percent growth from 2019 to 2021.
“Most sectors in the Idaho economy have shown job growth last year and this year, and most are expected to continue that growth through next year,” according to the forecast report.
Similar trends are expected nationally, according to IHS Markit, although job growth in Idaho, on a percentage basis, should be about double the U.S. average.
Neither the U.S. or Idaho forecast, however, factors in any negative consequences from the looming trade wars with Mexico, Canada, the European Union and China.
“Trade policy has yet to alter the forecast, though several different trade disputes have already arisen,” the forecast notes.
Nevertheless, the report points out that exports account for about half of Idaho’s crop production, including the bulk of the wheat grown in the state.